21 de setembre 2007

The independence in numbers: Spain's nightmare

Two years ago a statistic study called Referendums and opinion polls about independence: a taboo affair was published in the net. That study showed the true numbers of the independence strength in Catalonia. To sum up to these results, we have other Spanish official opinion polls that confirm the tendency of the unofficial polls. Of course the Spanish polls do not ask directly about independence.

In the democratic Spain the call for "unauthorized" referendums is prohibited since 2003 by the Spanish criminal code (not by the civil code) so the Spanish democracy considers that those who call for "unauthorized" referendums are like murderers, terrorists, thieves, etc. The penalty for such "criminals" that organize or cooperate in the organization of referendums is between 3 and 5 years of prison and the disquialification for any public post. This law was created when José María Aznar was still president of Spain (Aznar is today the leader in the shade of the right wing and Spanish nationalist party PP full of old members of the fascist unique party during Franco's dictatorship). But surprisingly the left wing party (and federal in its theoretical concept of Spain) PSOE and its leader, president Zapatero, did not revoke such antidemocratic law in 2004, when they won the elections, while in 2003 PSOE was against it.

Nowadays the call for a referendum is still considered a political crime.

It is not a mistery what "unauthorized" means in Spain: any attempt of a democratic self-determination process of Catalonia and the Basque Country. The Spanish democratic laws ban one of the most important human rights: the self-determination of a nation. Congratulations. You have invented the anti-democratic democracy.

But why such legal efforts to chain the will of the people? Spain denies our existence as a nation. They say we are all Spaniards. So if we are all Spaniards, why such worry in ban self-determination referendums? Perhaps Spaniards live pretending not to see the truth. Perhaps this Spain is such a big lie that it needs to be imposed by the force of unfair laws. When a law is made against someone it is not a law but legal repression. And it is clear that this law is made against Catalans and Basques, even though they are not mentioned in it (Spaniards are not so fool). Spain is our legal jail from which we cannot "legally" escape. If democracy is a crime... what would happen if the supporters of the Catalan self-determination were majority in the future? Wouldn't it be the origin of a civil unrest? We are forced to be Spaniards whether we want it or not. Half democracy is the poison where troubles grow. And Spain is living in a half democracy since 1978.


According to the Institute of Political and Social Sciences the results to the question "Do you agree or disagree with the concept of Indenpendence of Catalonia?" were

1996: Agree - 29% Disagree - 56% Don't care - 11% Do not know - 4%

2004: Agree - 39% Disagree - 44% Don't care - 12% Do not know - 3%

As you can see those who agree increased a 10% in only eight years while those who disagree decreased a 12% in the same period of time. Since 2004 the tendency has not changed.

Another question of that poll in 2004 was "In the state of Spain the role of Catalonia should be..."

  • A Spanish region - 11%
  • An autonomous comunity (today status) - 36 %
  • A state (in a federal Spain) - 26%
  • An independent state - 20%

If you sum the first two answers that do not want Catalonia to be a state the result is 47%. If you sum the last two answers that want Catalonia to be a state (federal or independent. Today the federal Spain has proved impossible and federalists are decreasing while independentists increase) the result is 46%. Deuce. Do you understand the reason of the Spanish referendum law now? They try to hide and, what is worse, illegalize reality, but reality is a trunk in the sea: you cannot sink it. It will always come to surface again.

Nearly 20 years ago, in 1988, a poll made by the Convention for the National Independence made some questions. The answers were

  • "The cultural situation in Catalonia in an independent state would be..."

Better - 59.5% The same - 16% Worse - 9,3%

  • "The wealth of an independent Catalonia would..."

Increase - 51.2% Be the same - 13.2% Decrease - 17.2%

  • "The welfare state in an independent Catalonia would..."

Increase - 52.9% Be the same - 16.8% Decrease - 11.8%

  • "If there were a call for a referendum in favor of the independence of Catalonia what would be your vote?"

YES - 44.5 %

NO- 26.4%

That was the last time that an opinion poll asked directly about people's vote in a referendum of independence of Catalonia (Spain got afraid I suppose).

But the Spanish official polls of CIS show some interesting results also. Of course they do not ask about independence or referendums. But they ask about Catalan's national feelings "What do you feel?"

  • 1999: Only Spanish - 9.3% More Spanish than Catalan - 6.5% Equal Spanish and Catalan - 45.2% More Catalan than Spanish - 23% Only Catalan - 13.6%

  • 2006: Only Spanish - 6.6% More Spanish than Catalan - 5.4% Equal Spanish and Catalan - 40.6% More Catalan than Spanish - 27.8% Only Catalan - 17.5%

These results are simply a miracle after 300 years of Catalan submission to a hostile Spain that tried to destroy our national reality. But we are here. And time is ticking in our favor. They know that. Are Spaniards going to prohibit the pass of time? One day Catalans will claim for the full democracy we deserve. What will Spain do then? We will see. They have the tanks. They have the only democrat Constitution in Europe where the army is defined as the guardian of the unity of the State. The Spanish democracy accepts an interior military intervention if necessary. They fear democracy. That is why they use just a half democracy with us. We are not normal. We are a deformity of history. An accident that should have been vanished already.

Shame on Spain.